Early Phasic Containment of COVID-19 in Substantially Affected States of India
Introduction: India is experiencing the global COVID-19 pandemic caused with the infection of SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2). To explore the early epidemic course and the effectiveness of lockdowns on COVID-19 pandemic in some worst-affected Indian states.
Methods: Using publicly available real data and model-based prediction, the growth rate, case fatality rate, serial interval, and time-varying reproduction number (R) of COVID-19 were estimated, before and after lockdown implementation in India.
Results: The spread of COVID-19 epidemic in some highly-impacted Indian states displayed a characteristic sub-exponential growth projected up to 3 May 2020, as a consequence of lockdown strategies, in addition to improvement of reproduction number (R), serial interval, and daily growth rate, but not case fatality rate (CFR). The effect of COVID-19 containment was more prominent in second phase of lockdown with declining R, which was still >1.
Conclusion: The current findings suggest the requirement of sustained interventions for effective containment of COVID-19 pandemic in Indian context.
Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Indian states, epidemiological parameters, lockdown effect.
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