Early Phasic Containment of COVID-19 in Substantially Affected States of India

  • Manisha Mandal Department of Physiology, MGM Medical College, Kishanganj-855107, India https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9562-5534
  • Shyamapada Mandal Laboratory of Microbiology and Experimental Medicine, Department of Zoology, University of Gour Banga, Malda-732103, India

Abstract

Introduction: India is experiencing the global COVID-19 pandemic caused with the infection of SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2). To explore the early epidemic course and the effectiveness of lockdowns on COVID-19 pandemic in some worst-affected Indian states.


Methods: Using publicly available real data and model-based prediction, the growth rate, case fatality rate, serial interval, and time-varying reproduction number (R) of COVID-19 were estimated, before and after lockdown implementation in India.


Results: The spread of COVID-19 epidemic in some highly-impacted Indian states displayed a characteristic sub-exponential growth projected up to 3 May 2020, as a consequence of lockdown strategies, in addition to improvement of reproduction number (R), serial interval, and daily growth rate, but not case fatality rate (CFR). The effect of COVID-19 containment was more prominent in second phase of lockdown with declining R, which was still >1.


Conclusion: The current findings suggest the requirement of sustained interventions for effective containment of COVID-19 pandemic in Indian context.


Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Indian states, epidemiological parameters, lockdown effect.

Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Indian states, epidemiological parameters, lockdown effect

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Author Biographies

Manisha Mandal, Department of Physiology, MGM Medical College, Kishanganj-855107, India

Department of Physiology, MGM Medical College, Kishanganj-855107, India

Shyamapada Mandal, Laboratory of Microbiology and Experimental Medicine, Department of Zoology, University of Gour Banga, Malda-732103, India

Laboratory of Microbiology and Experimental Medicine, Department of Zoology, University of Gour Banga, Malda-732103, India

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doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.20.254045
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1.
Mandal M, Mandal S. Early Phasic Containment of COVID-19 in Substantially Affected States of India. JDDT [Internet]. 15Aug.2020 [cited 22Apr.2021];10(4-s):31-3. Available from: http://jddtonline.info/index.php/jddt/article/view/4284